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Deep Space Weather Model: Long-Range Solar Flare Prediction from Multi-Wavelength Images

Nagashima, Shunya, Sugiura, Komei

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate, reliable solar flare prediction is crucial for mitigating potential disruptions to critical infrastructure, while predicting solar flares remains a significant challenge. Existing methods based on heuristic physical features often lack representation learning from solar images. On the other hand, end-to-end learning approaches struggle to model long-range temporal dependencies in solar images. In this study, we propose Deep Space Weather Model (Deep SWM), which is based on multiple deep state space models for handling both ten-channel solar images and long-range spatio-temporal dependencies. Deep SWM also features a sparse masked autoencoder, a novel pretraining strategy that employs a two-phase masking approach to preserve crucial regions such as sunspots while compressing spatial information. Furthermore, we built FlareBench, a new public benchmark for solar flare prediction covering a full 11-year solar activity cycle, to validate our method. Our method outperformed baseline methods and even human expert performance on standard metrics in terms of performance and reliability. The project page can be found at https://keio-smilab25.github.io/DeepSWM.


Flat U-Net: An Efficient Ultralightweight Model for Solar Filament Segmentation in Full-disk H$\alpha$ Images

Zhu, GaoFei, Lin, GangHua, Yang, Xiao, Zeng, Cheng

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solar filaments are one of the most prominent features observed on the Sun, and their evolutions are closely related to various solar activities, such as flares and coronal mass ejections. Real-time automated identification of solar filaments is the most effective approach to managing large volumes of data. Existing models of filament identification are characterized by large parameter sizes and high computational costs, which limit their future applications in highly integrated and intelligent ground-based and space-borne observation devices. Consequently, the design of more lightweight models will facilitate the advancement of intelligent observation equipment. In this study, we introduce Flat U-Net, a novel and highly efficient ultralightweight model that incorporates simplified channel attention (SCA) and channel self-attention (CSA) convolutional blocks for the segmentation of solar filaments in full-disk H$\alpha$ images. Feature information from each network layer is fully extracted to reconstruct interchannel feature representations. Each block effectively optimizes the channel features from the previous layer, significantly reducing parameters. The network architecture presents an elegant flattening, improving its efficiency, and simplifying the overall design. Experimental validation demonstrates that a model composed of pure SCAs achieves a precision of approximately 0.93, with dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and recall rates of 0.76 and 0.64, respectively, significantly outperforming the classical U-Net. Introducing a certain number of CSA blocks improves the DSC and recall rates to 0.82 and 0.74, respectively, which demonstrates a pronounced advantage, particularly concerning model weight size and detection effectiveness. The data set, models, and code are available as open-source resources.


Solar Filaments Detection using Active Contours Without Edges

Bandyopadhyay, Sanmoy, Pant, Vaibhav

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this article, an active contours without edges (ACWE)-based algorithm has been proposed for the detection of solar filaments in H-alpha full-disk solar images. The overall algorithm consists of three main steps of image processing. These are image pre-processing, image segmentation, and image post-processing. Here in the work, contours are initialized on the solar image and allowed to deform based on the energy function. As soon as the contour reaches the boundary of the desired object, the energy function gets reduced, and the contour stops evolving. The proposed algorithm has been applied to few benchmark datasets and has been compared with the classical technique of object detection. The results analysis indicates that the proposed algorithm outperforms the results obtained using the existing classical algorithm of object detection.


A Quantum Fuzzy-based Approach for Real-Time Detection of Solar Coronal Holes

Bandyopadhyay, Sanmoy, Kundu, Suman

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The detection and analysis of the solar coronal holes (CHs) is an important field of study in the domain of solar physics. Mainly, it is required for the proper prediction of the geomagnetic storms which directly or indirectly affect various space and ground-based systems. For the detection of CHs till date, the solar scientist depends on manual hand-drawn approaches. However, with the advancement of image processing technologies, some automated image segmentation methods have been used for the detection of CHs. In-spite of this, fast and accurate detection of CHs are till a major issues. Here in this work, a novel quantum computing-based fast fuzzy c-mean technique has been developed for fast detection of the CHs region. The task has been carried out in two stages, in first stage the solar image has been segmented using a quantum computing based fast fuzzy c-mean (QCFFCM) and in the later stage the CHs has been extracted out from the segmented image based on image morphological operation. In the work, quantum computing has been used to optimize the cost function of the fast fuzzy c-mean (FFCM) algorithm, where quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) has been used to optimize the quadratic part of the cost function. The proposed method has been tested for 193 \AA{} SDO/AIA full-disk solar image datasets and has been compared with the existing techniques. The outcome shows the comparable performance of the proposed method with the existing one within a very lesser time.


A Comparative Study on Generative Models for High Resolution Solar Observation Imaging

Cherti, Mehdi, Czernik, Alexander, Kesselheim, Stefan, Effenberger, Frederic, Jitsev, Jenia

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solar activity is one of the main drivers of variability in our solar system and the key source of space weather phenomena that affect Earth and near Earth space. The extensive record of high resolution extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) offers an unprecedented, very large dataset of solar images. In this work, we make use of this comprehensive dataset to investigate capabilities of current state-of-the-art generative models to accurately capture the data distribution behind the observed solar activity states. Starting from StyleGAN-based methods, we uncover severe deficits of this model family in handling fine-scale details of solar images when training on high resolution samples, contrary to training on natural face images. When switching to the diffusion based generative model family, we observe strong improvements of fine-scale detail generation. For the GAN family, we are able to achieve similar improvements in fine-scale generation when turning to ProjectedGANs, which uses multi-scale discriminators with a pre-trained frozen feature extractor. We conduct ablation studies to clarify mechanisms responsible for proper fine-scale handling. Using distributed training on supercomputers, we are able to train generative models for up to 1024x1024 resolution that produce high quality samples indistinguishable to human experts, as suggested by the evaluation we conduct. We make all code, models and workflows used in this study publicly available at \url{https://github.com/SLAMPAI/generative-models-for-highres-solar-images}.